Crypto by Day

Altseason is dead

Looking back at the past four years, from the top in late 2021 and up until today, it’s painfully clear that the concept of the classic altseason has not been helpful. A new strategy is desperately needed.

TL;DR

The four year cycle theory

The concept of the four year crypto cycle, ending in a broad so called altseason, has been very popular among crypto analysts, myself included. And for good reason. Looking back to the past two cycles, topping in 2017, and 2021 respectively, the pattern has been strikingly similar: after bottoming out about a year after the previous top, bitcoin moved first, then altcoins followed, eventually leading to an across-the-board parabolic altcoin orgy into the end of the cycle.

This broad and indiscriminate altcoin rally in year four of the cycle is what the term “altseason” refers to. And this altseason is what many of us in the space have been patiently waiting for, desperately repeating the mantra “altseason is coming” to numb the silent dispair of our underwater altcoin bags weighing heavy around our necks.

Altseason is dead

But alas, while it might be that bitcoin has once again played out its four year prophecy, altseason clearly has not. The faithful have been waiting in vain, and it’s now painfully clear that for all practical purposes, the concept of the broad altseason is dead.

A short review of the past three years should make it obvious that a different strategy is needed. Looking back, the concept of altseason, especially as viewed through the lens of bitcoin dominance, has not helped at all. We never got a broad altseason this cycle, and if you were sitting around waiting for it, you in fact missed many fantastic opportunities.

Long live altcoins

Because despite the lack of a broad altcoin season, there were multiple specific narratives that did extremely well over the past three years. For example Solana and a few new L1s, a number of DePIN projects, some gaming coins, AI, and of course: memecoins. This all with bitcoin dominance on a steady upward march, showing that on a whole, altseason was nowhere to be found.

And of course, thinking about it, this shouldn’t come as too much of a suprise. As the total crypto market grows, it naturally becomes more segregated: some sectors can thrive, while others languish. Thus, altseason is dead, but altcoins are not.

Adapt or die

So if this is the new reality, how to we deal with it? As investors in the space, what changes do we need to make to our strategy?

I think there are three main takeaways here:

  1. Altcoins are not dead, but the concept of a broad altseason is
  2. Monitor bitcoin dominance, but do not base your strategy on it
  3. Instead, identify key narratives and specific projects

So in short, we should get more specific: we should care less about what bitcoin is doing, and also less about what the crypto market as a whole is doing. Instead we should put our energy into thinking about upcoming narratives, and research individual projects that can play into those narratives.

That’s how we win going into 2026 and beyond.

The 2026 gameplan

I’m not going to dive into specific narratives and altcoins here, that wasn’t the point of this article.

But just shortly, right now the only narrative showing positive charts is privacy. Primarily Monero and Zcash, possibly with Midnight as a new kid on the block.

In addition to privacy, my current gameplan for 2026 is to focus on DePINs, web3 gaming, stablecoins, and RWAs. But more on this later.

Stay tuned.