Bitcoin weekly: All eyes on Powell

Bitcoin closed the week at $115.3k, continuing last week’s bounce from support at $109k. The breakout from early July is still in play, with a price target of $142k. Bitcoin dominance keeps trending down: altseason is still on!

Also watch the accompanying chart analysis on YouTube.

Last week, macro was all focused on the latest US inflation numbers that came in mid-week. As the dominating narrative goes, job numbers being somewhat weak is good news, because that will cause the Fed to cut rates. But the one thing that could mess this up would be inflation heating up again. Then we’d get the dreaded combination of a slowing economy paired with an increasing inflation, a situation also known as stagflation, which is every central banker’s nightmare.

Luckily, the inflation data came in okay. US stock markets were happy, putting in new all time highs. So everything’s good for now, the party goes on.

Next up all eyes will be on the FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday, and especially chairman Powell’s comments on the path ahead for the rest of the year. Right now, Monday morning, market has it at a 94% probability of a 25 bps cut, which is likely what will happen.

Turning to crypto and the bitcoin chart, it looks good too. Two weeks ago, when bitcoin was dipping down to $109k, I had this to say: “Going back to test the level of a breakout like this is not uncommon, and it’s usually the logical place to buy the dip.” This turned out to be the right call, as bitcoin had another good week, continuing the bounce from the week prior.

As for bitcoin dominance, it’s still dropping. Meaning altseason is still on. The rally so far has mostly been contained to the big players, like Ethereum, Solana, and BNB. As altseason progresses and retail wakes up, the gains will likely spread to smaller cap coins.

That’s all for this week, I’ll be back again next Monday with a new update. Thanks for reading!