Bitcoin weekly: Fear turning back to greed
This week fear swung back towards greed, as stock markets closed at new all time highs, and bitcoin ETF inflows turned positive again. This sets up a good base for a renewed bitcoin rally into the end of the year, with the price target of $142k still in play.
Also watch the accompanying chart analysis on YouTube.
Let’s start with the big picture first. In tradfi, US stock markets had a good week. The fearful sentiment after the recent dip is clearly waning, as both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 closed at new all time highs.
The US government shutdown is still leaving the markets flying blind, as much of the usual economic data is not being released. However, on Friday the latest CPI numbers did come out, and they came out slightly lower than expected. This was welcomed by the markets, as it removed any doubts of further Fed rate cuts.
This coming week is going to be full packed in macro and tradfi land. On Wednesday we have the FOMC meeting where the US Fed will announce their next rate cut (the market has it at a 96.7% probability of a 25 bps cut). Then also on Wednesday, Microsoft, Google and Meta will report earnings, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Meanwhile, Trump is meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping on Thursday, and it seems both parties are looking to de-escalate the trade war. US stock market futures are up this morning, suggesting a week of positive news.
Turning to crypto, the first thing to notice is that bitcoin ETF inflows picked up again, after a week of outflows in the wake of the October 10 flash crash. A total of 4k BTC, the inflows this week were not large, but it shows that institutions remain in the game, not turning away from crypto in fear.
Looking to the bitcoin chart, the week closed at $114.5k, well above the old support at $109k where it closed last week. Bouncing from this support, in combination with strong stock markets, and ETF flows turning positive again, sets up a good base for a renewed rally into the end of the year. The conservative price target at $142k remains.
Bitcoin dominance has been hovering right below 60% for 3 weeks now, keeping altseason on pause. However, as noted last week, it’s still trending down, below the 40 week EMA. And until that changes, altseason is still alive.
That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading, and check back next Monday for a new update!
