Bitcoin Weekly: Iran War Already Priced In?

Our favorite President of Peace has started a war in the Middle East. As news of the attack broke on Saturday, bitcoin sold off. But not that much, and by Sunday night it had recovered the initial drop. This means a bear market is rally is still not out of the question.

Also watch the accompanying chart analysis on YouTube.

As American and Israeli bombs started falling over Iran on Saturday, bitcoin reacted by selling off. But not much, and by the end of the week it had recovered from the initial drop.

What does this mean?

Well, maybe the market has already priced in this war. That’s what the oil chart suggests at least. It started showing strength several weeks ago, so insiders probably knew about the plans since some time back.

Or maybe the reaction will be delayed, and bitcoin will drop again as the US markets open later today, repeating the 2022 pattern for another deep leg down.

I don’t know. But given how bitcoin held up on the news, I still think the most likely scenario is a counter-trend rally over the next month or two, eventually leading to a lower low before the bottom is in.

But let’s see how the US markets open later today. And also let’s not forget that bitcoin is in fact still in a bear market: this is not the time to take big risks.