Bitcoin Weekly: Weak Sauce

The strength that bitcoin showed last week failed to follow through. Meanwhile stock markets are even closer to an inflection point, with key indices breaking below their 40 week averages. This is not the time to take risks.

The optimism last week after bitcoin’s strong weekly close sadly didn’t last long. The clown show in the Middle East continues, with Trump sending messages of de-escalation one day, then following up the day after with impossible ultimatums. Either he is A/B testing messages on his voter base, or he has completely lost control.

I’m guessing the latter. But either way, there is a real risk that there’s a lot more pain coming up ahead. Could Trump TACO out again and cause a big relief rally? Yes, he could. Could he do something really stupid that kicks off another sell-off across the board? Also yes.

This is not the time to take on risk. Bitcoin is in a bear market. Keep that in mind. Good setups will come, but for now my main message remains the same as it has since November: stay cautious, live to fight another day.

On the weekly, bitcoin closed below 70k support again. It might be that this area is now turning from support and into resistance.

On the daily bitcoin chart, I have reconsidered my interpretation. The symmetric triangle that I drew in early March is morphing into a rising wedge. This is a bearish formation, but it has not yet broken to the downside. If it does, it could repeat the pattern from late January, leading to another deep leg down.