Bitcoin Weekly: I'm a Grumpy Bear

Bitcoin keeps pushing higher inside the channel forming on the daily chart. There’s still room to the upside, but bigger picture my stance remains: this is a bear market rally.

After a dip mid-week, bitcoin recovered to close the week flat, helped along by strong stock markets.

It’s now spent the past two weeks close to the top of the upwards sloping channel that is forming on the daily chart. I think there’s a decent possibility that this channel will actually break to the upside, for the rally to continue higher over the short term. For how long? I don’t know. A couple of weeks perhaps, into early summer?

Zooming out though, this move is still in line with the scenario of a counter trend rally, from the bottom at 60k back in early February.

How high could such a counter trend rally go? Looking at the weekly chart, it could go all the way up to 94k. If it goes any higher than that, it will form a higher high on the weekly chart, and that would change the situation. But until that happens, there is still the likelihood of a lower high forming, eventually leading to a lower low before the bear market is over.

Perhaps I’m just a stubborn grumpy bear, not getting on with the times. But for now this still looks like a bear market rally, and it’s hard for me to get excited about bitcoin right now.

At some point that will change, but not this week.