Bitcoin Weekly: Strong Stocks, Weak Bitcoin

Stocks soar to new all time highs, and while it’s too early to tell if the breakout is going to hold, there is no denying the fact: stock markets remain in a strong uptrend. Meanwhile, bitcoin is clearly lagging behind, stuck in a downtrend.

Bitcoin closed at 74k, slightly up on the week. Just above resistance at 72k, but still within the downwards sloping channel that we’ve been watching since a few weeks back (chart below).

This week, I’ve added a resistance line at 76k, going back to the swing low in early April 2025. Right now, this level also coincides with resistance from the upper edge of the channel. Meaning that a break above 76k also would be a break out of the channel. This would be a sign of strength, so that’s something to watch out for. However, even if that were to happen, the 40 week average is still up above, sitting at around 85k this week.

Bitcoin struggling like this — down 40% from the top, below the 40 week average — while stocks are pushing to new all time highs, that’s weak.

Stock markets had another strong week, with the Nasdaq 100 closing the week on a breakout to new all time highs (chart below).

That said, I think there is still reason for caution here. Perhaps I’m overly pessimistic, but I’m not yet convinced this rally will hold. Perhaps it will mirror what bitcoin did last year: break out to a new all time high, but then finally lose steam and come down for a larger correction. I don’t know, and that said, a breakout in an uptrend is a breakout, and for now the chart does indeed look bullish.

Just remember to set your stops.