Bitcoin Weekly: The Bottom Is Probably Not In Yet

Bitcoin has now recovered a bit from the recent breakdown, and some people are out calling for a bottom already. But so far, the price target from the breakdown remains at 50.7k.

After the breakdown the week before last, bitcoin has recovered slightly.

So far, technical support from the February low around 60k is holding. But there is no indication yet that a longer term bottom is in. This small bounce so far only looks like a typical mechanical rebound after a sharp sell-off.

In the past, bitcoin bear markets have lasted about 12 months from the cycle top. The top was in October, so if the same pattern repeats, the cycle bottom will be sometime in late Q3 or early Q4 this year.

Does this same pattern have to repeat this time again? No. Of course not. But until the chart shows some other sign of a durable bottom, it should be the base case.

So personally I’m either waiting for cheaper bitcoin, or for a clear bottoming pattern.